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Football's Coming Home!!!

Just ahead of the World Cup Quarter Finals; exclusive data, which has never been released before, reveals that confidence in the English football team has soared by 27% from 2014 to 2018.

The data and the key findings are in the report below, which also highlights:

•             England are the favourite to back in the 2018 World Cup - they have a 11.21% majority, 27% up on 2018

•             This is echoed internationally, with the majority of punters backing England (9.51%), followed by Germany (9.12%), and Belgium (6.93%).

•             Confidence in Germany is has increased the most from being a 4.5% backing 2014 to 9.12% in 2018

•             Followed by Croatia (1.19% to 4.65%), and Portugal (3.64% to 6.56%)

Is Football Coming Home then? Well, England Rank 1st Place for Winning the World Cup currently.

Betting data from Betfair has revealed that Gareth Southgate’s side has been the most popular to back at the 2018 World Cup. With confidence in the England football team having soared with a 11.21% majority of backing bets. This is up 27% on the 2014 World Cup.

The Three Lions booked their place in the quarter-finals on Tuesday with a dramatic penalty shoot-out victory over Colombia – the first time in World Cup history that our nation has won via spot kicks. Football fans took twitter by storm, tweeting their admiration for the team:

Melissa Reddy, Senior Football Correspondent, tweeted: “This is not a drill. England have won a penalty shootout. I repeat. England have won a penalty shootout.”

And on their Twitter account, the MobileBettingSite team predicted that the bookies are getting extremely worried at the prospect that England could go all the way. Given the number of large bets that have been placed on the 3 Lions, the odds compilers could be facing a huge payout.

Gareth Southgate’s side are set to take on Sweden in the quarter-finals at the Samara Arena on Saturday. Many punters will have vast interest in the match as Betfair have revealed that 11.21% of total UK bets on the 2018 World Cup winner are on England – more than any other nation competing in Russia.

These back bets are from UK and were placed before the matches began, so any results after the World Cup started didn’t influence the result.

Football stat man, Barrie's View, says: "The increase in confidence is coming off the back of a successful qualifying campaign and results against the likes of Germany and Brazil in friendlies earlier this year. We also have superstar Harry Kane up front!"
This is also echoed internationally, with punters backing England (9.51%), followed by Germany (9.12%), and Belgium (6.93%).

Germany followed Gareth Southgate’s side with 9.12% of the total bets. However, the 2014 winners were eliminated at the group stage this summer.

Interestingly, Germany were only backed by 4.5% of Betfair’s customers four years ago, whereas runners-up Argentina were the most popular bet in Brazil – with 10.94% of the market.

After struggling to reach Russia this summer, Argentina saw much less backing this time around as only 4.54% of punters backed Jorge Sampaoli’s side. They were eliminated 4-3 by France in the second round on Saturday.

Along with England, who saw an increase from 8.81% to 11.21%, Croatia (1.19% to 4.65%), Russia (1.37% to 4.26%) and Portugal (3.64% to 6.56%) have all seen a big increase in bets from four years ago. And like Gareth Southgate’s side, Croatia and Russia will be competing in the quarter-finals this weekend. The two nations face each other to determine who will play England or Sweden in the semi-finals.
Fellow quarter-finalist Belgium were the third most popular bet pre-tournament. Roberto Martinez’s side take on favourites Brazil on Friday.

   

Fellaini winner seals top four finish for United

Belgian midfielder Marouane Fellaini grabbed all three points with a last gasp goal for Manchester United to beat rivals Arsenal 2-1 on Sunday. The big man was a handful after coming on as a substitute in the 64th minute and he flicked in a clever header from an Ashley Young cross in the 91st minute to give United a dramatic late winner in a slow-burning game at Old Trafford.

Paul Pogba had given United the lead from close range on 16 minutes before Henrikh Mkhitaryan levelled for the Gunners shortly after half time. Fellaini’s winning goal means United are sitting 2nd in the Premier league and cement a top 4 place, and also means Arsenal will finish outside the top 4 and below North London rivals Tottenham for the second successive season and now Wenger’s last at the helm. The Gunners are now sitting 6th in the league, 3 points above 7th placed Burnley. This was the last time the Frenchman would be in the away dugout at Old Trafford as Arsenal manager and before kick off the long serving Wenger was presented with an award by his old rival, ex-United manager Sir Alex Ferguson. 

United won their second league match in a row after their loss to West Brom, which not only handed the Premier League title to their arch rivals Manchester City, but also gave West Brom a chance of survival according to Premiership relegation odds from Betfair. However, despite caretaker manager Darren Moore being undefeated as manager of the Baggies, with the teams around them also picking up points, their hopes of survival remain slim.

Meanwhile, Wenger made seven changes to the side that drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid in midweek, with an eye on what turned out to be a defeat in the second leg of the Europa League semi-final on Thursday. Koscielny, Mustafi, Ramsey, Monreal, Ozil, Wilshere and Lacazette made way for Chambers, Kolasinac, Maitland-Niles, Nelson, Mkhitaryan, Aubameyang and 19 year old debutant Mavrapanos. 

United boss Jose Mourinho made just one change from the side that started against Tottenham in last weekend’s FA Cup semi-final victory, with Victor Lindelof coming in for Phil Jones. 

The home side started well and went ahead when an Alexis Sanchez header was blocked by Arsenal defender Hector Bellerin before the ball ricocheted off the post and the ball fell kindly to French midfielder Pogba, who volleyed the into an empty net from a couple of yards out.

Mkhitarayan came close to an equaliser for the visitors soon after they went behind, but he dragged his shot just wide of goalkeeper David De Gea’s far post. United went into the second half with the lead but their star striker Romelu Lukaku was taken off injured and shortly afterwards Mkhitaryan did find the net, a neat finish into the bottom corner from outside the area. 

Arsenal held on and defended resolutely for most of the second half until late on, when United substitute Marcus Rashford had what he thought to be the winning goal disallowed for offside. The striker managed to deflect the ball in when a Fellaini header ricocheted off the post but the goal was rightly ruled offside. 

United did manage to score the winner a couple of minutes later though, when Fellaini rose high in the area to meet an Ashley Young cross and guide a header past David Ospina, much to the delight of the home supporters. The defeat means the Gunners have now lost 6 consecutive away games in the Premier league. 

Speaking to Sky Sports, Mourinho said of his side; “We were a bit lucky with scoring in the last couple of minutes, but we were the stronger side in the last twenty.”

Wenger praised his young Arsenal side in defeat, saying; “It’s difficult to find a bad performance in the team, but it was a bad result.” 

In a somewhat uninspiring game, Arsenal looked to have earned themselves a point with Mkhitaryan’s equaliser against his former club. In doing so the Armenian became the first player to ever score for and against United in the same season. The momentum of the game swung in United’s favour however, after Mourinho’s substitutions. His side were hitting long balls up to the tall frame of Fellaini at every opportunity. The game plan worked eventually when Young picked out the big Belgian, who looped a backwards header over the hapless Ospina.  Arsenal were unlucky to lose the game especially given the unfamiliar and inexperienced starting 11 and despite the defeat, there were some positives to take from the game for Wenger, and in particular man of the match, Ashley Maitland-Niles. The 20 year old impressed in midfield and looks to be a real talent. He was aggressive in winning the ball back all game and completed 36 out of his 39 passes. 

With Wenger leaving the club at the end of the season, the new manager, whoever that may be, will be looking to improve the squad over the summer, in a bid to get the club into the Premier League tips from Betfair. A new manager will give Arsenal a fresh feel, something that they have desperately needed after the last couple of seasons.

Interestingly Arsene Wenger has now failed to win a league game at Old Trafford since 2006 and this result has taken United to 96 wins from the 289 matches they have played against each other, with Arsenal having won 82 times.

Despite United’s superior head-to-head record, this victory meant that for the first time since the 2011/12 season, United have done the double over Arsenal in the Premier League.

The loss for Arsenal has meant that they are still yet to win an away match in the Premier League in 2018, which is something no other team in the top four tiers of English football have done. This is an unwanted record that can be rectified with their final two away league games of the season against an out of form Leicester City and a struggling Huddersfield Town.

Paul Pogba has proven just how valuable he is to the squad, even with the reported disputes between himself and manager Jose Mourinho. United have won all ten matches that the French midfielder has scored in.

by David Hay

   

The Northern powerhouses of English football

The North of England has been blessed with a wealth of top footballing clubs over the years, in particular in the north-west of the country. The most successful teams from this region are Manchester United and Liverpool, who have a combined 38 English top league titles. They have not only been dominant in English football, but have also been able to dominate on the European stage alongside teams such as Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich.

This season saw an all-English tie in the quarter-finals of the Champions League as Liverpool took on Manchester United’s city rivals, Manchester City for a place in the semi-finals. Despite City being made the favourites to qualify before the first leg, Liverpool’s 3-0 win in such a dominating fashion saw the Champions League odds turned on their head. City took an early lead in the second leg, reducing the deficit to just two goals, however, just as in the first leg, City’s defence was unable to neutralise the potent Liverpool attack and the Citizens crumbled to a 2-1 defeat, meaning Liverpool had progressed 5-1 on aggregate. Liverpool’s opponents in the semi-final are Italian Serie A club Roma, who managed to knock out Barcelona despite having lost 4-1 in the away leg. Roma’s ability to shut out Barcelona’s attack in the second leg should be a warning to Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp not to underestimate the Italians.

Between the north and south of England, it has been the north that has been the more dominant since the European Cup was rebranded as the Champions League back in 1992. Of the northern teams, none has been more dominant than Manchester United, who have appeared in 22 of a possible 26 Champions League group stages. Of those 22 seasons in the competition, the Red Devils have managed to reach the final on four occasions, with a 50% success rate. The first of these triumphs occurred at the Nou Camp back in 1999, in the final between United and Bayern Munich. Rated as one of the greatest finals of all time, the game saw Bayern take the lead just after five minutes had been played. Bayern would hold onto this lead until the final few minutes, where injury time goals from United substitutes Teddy Sheringham and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer secured a famous win against Bayern. Their second victory in the tournament was somewhat less impressive, with United defeating English rivals Chelsea in a penalty shootout. The two occasions which saw United lose in the final were both against Barcelona, who had a certain Lionel Messi in their team.

Liverpool have featured in two Champions League finals and also have a success rate of 50%, having both won and lost against Italian club AC Milan in two finals. The first meeting between the two occurring in the 2004/05 season and saw Liverpool battle back from being 3-0 down in the first half to draw 3-3 and take the game all the way to penalties, which Liverpool won 3-2. Milan would have to wait just two seasons to exact their revenge, winning 2-1 in the 2006/07 final.

Since the club were taken over in 2008, Manchester City have had the luxury of being able to buy top quality players and future stars in order to build a fantastic squad. They have now featured in the Champions League group stage seven times and their best performance in the competition was in the 2015/16 season, where the Citizens were able to reach the semi-final before being knocked out by the eventual winners, Real Madrid.

Although Manchester United have appeared in the most group stages out of all the English clubs, Arsenal are not behind, having managed to do it on 19 occasions themselves. They don’t have the same success in the competition as their northern rivals, having only ever reached the final once, in a losing effort against Barcelona in the 2005/06 season. The Gunners were down to ten men early on, after Jens Lehmann picked up a straight red card, however Arsene Wenger’s men were able to take the lead through Sol Campbell just before 40 minutes had been played. Unfortunately for Arsenal, with just 15 minutes remaining, Barcelona were able to equalise through Samuel Eto’o and five minute later, Belletti scored the winner for the Catalans.

Their London rivals Chelsea have done marginally better in the competition despite having featured on four less occasions than the Gunners. They finished as runners-up to Manchester United in the 2007/08 Champions League final, with John Terry missing a crucial penalty which took it to sudden death, only for Nicolas Anelka to then miss the decisive penalty. Five years later and Chelsea would finally go on to win that elusive Champions League title, by once again competing in a penalty shootout in the final, but this time, they were able to finish victorious by overcoming German club Bayern Munich.

Clubs from the north of England have a 50% success rate once they reach the final while those clubs from the south have not been able to produce such success in the final, having only managed a 33% win rate. By contrast, Real Madrid alone have managed to reach the final on six occasions, winning every single one of the finals they have competed in, giving them a success rate of 100%. Real Madrid’s semi-final opponents at this year’s tournament, Bayern Munich, have reached the final on five occasions, winning it just twice, meaning a 40% success rate. With statistics like that, Liverpool will no doubt be hoping to face Bayern in the final should they manage to overcome Roma.

   

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